TURNING POINTS FOR 01.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected last Friday, Nifty Future remained above 5470 except for a short while when it went down to make the day's low of 5456. It ended the day at 5488.

The Weekly/Monthly chart updated yesterday, give a very bleak picture of what lies ahead for Aug 2011. Next weeks' market action will be dominated mainly by the Debt Ceiling drama played out in the US of A.

For tomorrow, fresh short positions are best taken below 5450 with stop loss of 5485. Alternatively one can consider 5555 as a stop loss and go short as an when market shows weakness. On the down side, it will have support at 5420-5400 levels and Nifty Future may make an attempt to bounce from this level. However, long positions below the breakout levels on the monthly/weekly chart are prone to danger and hence best avoided.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.00 as against 0.89 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS and overnight long positions are best avoided.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 29.07.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Last week saw a range of 254 points (High 5710 and low 5456) and closed at 5488 - near the low of the week.

Just as in Monthly chart, here too we have a triangle formation as highlighted on the chart. Next week onwards we would be near the apex of the chart and breakout seems imminent - in the coming weeks. As mentioned in the Monthly update my bias coninues to remain bearish - considering various negative issues on Domestic/International front. On this chart, breakout on the upside is at 5700 and on the downside it is at 5420. As the breakout could be of 1300 points one needs to be cautious of long positions and fresh long positions are best avoided till Nifty Future shows some sign of bottoming out.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.07.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
On the back of weakness in World markets, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap and made the day's low of 5473. As mentioned in my post, 5470 is the swing mid point as shown on the charts and the same provided support. During the day, Nifty Future did make an attempt to go up, but managed to do a high of 5517 and ended the day to close at 5493 - almost a doji.

Tomorrow is the 1st day for the new FNO settlement and last day for the month of July and hence tomorrow's close will play a crucial part to indicate what lies ahead for the next month. For tomorrow, as long as 5470 is not breached we will have to keep positive bias for Nifty Future to bounce back to a high of 5560 where it will find resistance as shown on the 30 min charts. Hence, one may take long position with 5470 as strict stop loss level. Alternatively one can consider going short when Nifty Future trades near 5560-5590 levels with stop loss of 5630.

Fresh short position may be considered only below 5470 with stop loss of 5500. On the down side, it will find support at 5400 and 5350. Considering that tomorrow is the last trading day for the month, it looks unlikely that 5470 will be breached tomorrow.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.89 as against 0.93 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.