TURNING POINTS FOR 01.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and after announcement of RBI Credit Policy, due to sudden sell off made a low of 4757 and thereafter quickly recovered by about 132 points to make a high of 4889 and closed @ 4875. In my post for Friday's trading i had mentioned about remote possibility of testing 4750, which has happened although as a sudden spike. Having taken the support at a trend line market seems to have completed the correction but in light of global weakness, possibility of retesting 4750 levels can not be ruled out. Moreover, remote possibility of breaking this low can not be ruled out as of now. In such an event 4600 can be tested where it will find support of 200 DMA and 50% retracement level too.

For tomorrow, one can go long with strict stop loss of 4840. Nifty Future will find resistance at 4920 - 4965 and 5000. Nifty future will show strength only above 5030.

In the event of Nifty future retracing after making a top around 4920, one can short below the day's open with a stop loss of top made around 4920. On its way down it will find support at 4840 and below which weakness will accelerate and with possibility of retesting 4750 becoming very high.

Put Call Ratio of Index options decreased to 0.92 as against 1.00 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty future seems to have completed its target of .618 correction by making a low of 4823. Having tested this level twice i.e yesterday 4833 and today it did 4823, we can assume that this bottom will hold for some time. As Nifty Future is quite oversold, it can go up to 5060 levels and then come down again.

Tomorrow is a critical day as RBI policy will be announced. Considering double bottom, aggressive traders can create long position with 4820 as a stop loss. Alternatively, one can go long, when Nifty future breaks above 4925 with stop loss of 4880. On higher side it will find resistance at 4960 - 5000 and 5060.

Keeping a worst case target of 4750 on the lower side, this period offers an opportunity to buy good quality stocks for pre budget rally. I have also drawn a rectangle on the EOD chart which shows that we have been range bound - 4500 to 5300 for over 5 months now. Once we are able to break the level of 5300, we should be within striking distance of the previous top of 6336 - hopefully with narrow range days behind us.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1 as against 0.92 yesterday.

In view of RBI policy announcements, tomorrow could be a volatile day, so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading market opened weak and made lower bottom and lower top on 30 min charts, for better part of the day. The way it fell in the last one hour, it appears that bull liquidation should be near its end with tomorrow being the FNO settlement day. I had indicated yesterday that 4825 is likely to be tested, but not knowing that the same will be acheived today itself.

Tomorrow, if Nifty Future opens near today's close, one can consider buying above 4870 with stop loss as 4830. On the way up, it will find resistance at 4900 - 4935 and 4950 levels.

Alternatively, if Nifty Future breaks 4800 levels, one can consider buying Nifty Future after it stabilises near 4750 levels - where it will find Trend Line support as shown in EOD chart. On the way up it will find resistance at 4830 - 4900 - 4935 and 4950 levels.

As the oscillators are in oversold region, i will not advise going short at these levels. It will be better to consider buying Nifty Future after it stabilises at the levels given above.

Put Call Ratio of Index options remained unchanged at 0.92 levels.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Those following (and there are quite a few) the simple idea given in TP Grid would have got the sell signal when Nifty future went below 5225.

Many items are close to testing the 52 week mid-point given in C. Please note that this will act as a good support and delivery based buying can be considered with suitable stop loss.