TURNING POINTS FOR 04.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
On the back of weakness in World markets, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap and went down to make the day's low of 5387. In the second session, it made an attempt to go up to make a high of 5438 and barely managed to fill the gap left in the opening session. After spending the enitre day in and around 5400 level, it finally closed the day at 5424. The day's candle, with relatively small range (51 points) made a lower top / lower bottom. Interestingly, on the past two days we have a long lower shadow - suggesting strrength, but the next day Nifty Future has opened weak and continued its downward move. Well, if US/Europe markets are any indication at the time of wrtiing this post, we can expect the trend to continue tomorrow.
Tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5420 with stop loss of 5450/5470 depending on individaul risk profile. On the downside, 5300 will provide support. Existing short positions may be continued with stop loss of 5470.
In these uncertain times, long positions are best avoided till the market shows some sign of stability.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.93 as against 0.91 yesterday.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
As the World markets did not respond to the Debt deal favourably, Nifty Future (in a surprise move) opened near yesterday's low and after taking support near 5470 for a while, went down to make the day's low at 5433. On the attached 30 min chart, I have shown todays' support level with the help of Andrew's Pitchfork. It closed today at 5466 - just below 5470 level.
For tomorrow, the downward bias will continue as long as Nifty Future remains below 5470 (swing mid point). We are now near to the multiple support level near 5400 and fall will accelerate below this level to test the next support at 5300. As such it is advisable not to remain long, once Nifty Future trades below 5400 as it may be difficult to take a call as to how far can it go.
I guess, the only bullish factor left for the market currently is that all have suddenly become bearish on the market. What happens to the US Debt problem even after passing of the deal by Senate will get clear only in the next few days and hence all the markets will be held to ransom till the air is clear about the fate of the US AAA rating.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.91 as against 1.01 yesterday.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher,

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

Due to the announcement of Debt Ceiling problem being resolved in USA, our markets opened firm - just like other markets in Asia. But the paradox is that US indices are down nearly 1 % at the time of writing this post.

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and made high of 5557, but could not sustain at higher levels and came down to make the day's low of 5488 and bounced back to close the day at 5533. The EOD candle has a long lower shadow which is positive, but considering the way US markets have traded today, it may not mean much for us tomorrow. In any case 5555 is the level which needs to be broken decisively for us to see higher levels.

For tomorrow, one can keep the level of 5560 as Stop Loss level for short positions and at any sign of weakness one can keep this as a reference point to go short.

On the 30 min chart you will find a trend line (in Blue) which gets broken at 5500 and any fall below this level can take Nifty Future to 5450. It is not advisable to keep long positions (particularly in FNO) below 5450 as the trend line support is getting broken at this level in Weekly chart. The fall can accelerate below this level.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.01 as against 1.00 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.