TURNING POINTS FOR 4.01.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :
In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap and made a high of 6207 but thereafter maintained a downward bias and filled up the gap and in the last one hour made a low of 6175 and closed the day at 6182. Once again the day saw narrow movement of 32 points only.

Considering sharp up move in US markets at the time of writing, it is expected that we should see firm opening. However, I would like to remind that 6240 could be provide strong resistance.

Moreover, there is a divergence on the weekly chart which does not augur well for the market. In view of the same, I would not advise fresh long positions.

Fresh short positions should be considered only below 6175 with stop loss of 6210. On the down side 6100 could provide support as there is a gap to be filled. Weakness will accelerate now only below 6100 (please see the trend line on the EOD chart).

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.96 as against 1.29 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.01.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

The year 2010 ended on last Friday on a strong note and gave 17.95% (938 points) return over the year. We are now in a strong resistance area as mentioned in the quarterly review updated yesterday. Moreover, in the enthusiasm of ending the year on a strong note, we had a gap open on Friday and the same will have to be filled soon.

As has been my view, please avoid fresh long positions at higher levels. As indicated in last post, 6175 (trend line shown on the EOD chart did provide resistance). Moreover, on the higher side, 6210 and 6240 can be strong hurdles. I would advise going short with these two levels as reference points depending on ones' risk profile. Nifty Future has to fill the Gap left on Friday opening session and hence can come down till 6100, before resuming the up move - if at all.

Alternatively, one can go short below 6150 with stop loss of 6185. On the down side it will find support at 6125 and 6090.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.29 as against 1.03 on the previous trading dau.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 31.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Quarterly Chart for Q. E. Dec 2010 along with my comments uploaded. With the help of Andrew's Pitchfork. I have explained on the chart why 6240 could be a trend decider for current quarter.

NIFTY FUTURE:

The process of higher bottom and higher top on the weekly chart continued for the 2nd week and thus displaying some sort of strength getting back to the markets and hopes of a new top reviving. The week saw a range of 185 points (Hi 6182 & Lo 5997) and closed at 6163 - suggesting firm opening next week.

What is interesting hereon is, whether Nifty Future continues to move up and cross the major hurdle at 6210 and 6240 (as indicated in quarterly post uploaded today)? If it does, we are certain of a new top otherwise once again we test 5700 levels and this time around it could even break it.

Yesterday Bank Nifty Future did make a come back effort, in vew of rate hike announced by various banks. Please keep 11655 as reference point to remain bullish in Bank Nifty Future. On the higher side 12200 area could provide strong resistance.

Despite 3 weeks of up move, oscillators have not yet generated a buy signal on the weekly chart, hence sustainability of this up move remains doubtful. Break of 6100 on the downside is the first sign of weakness.

With Best Wishes for a Happy & Prosperous New Year.

Ketan Asher.