TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 03.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKENDED 03.12.2010

During the past week Nifty Future showed an upward bias as it bounced from the low of 5727 which provided strong support as can be seen on the attached chart. The week saw a range of 262 (Hi of 6039 & Lo of 5777) and closed @ 6017, near the high of the week and suggesting continuation of the up move next week.

Further up move can be expected above 6039 - which remains the midpoint as indicated earlier. However, not much should be read in this breakout as we will have to face stronger resistance at 6100 levels. I Would like to caution that possibility of new high should be considered only after Nifty Future crosses 6200 - till than we can safely consider this up move as a pullback rally from a strong support.

On the downside, key support remains @ 5800 level below which, panic like situatuions can emerge.

While the past week's up move was strong, one needs to be cautious at higher levels as oscillators continue to remain in the sell mode.

Have a nice weekend !

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future had a strong opening but thereafter, remained sideways throughout the day. However, once again gave a strong close and thereby suggesting a strong opening session tomorrow. To highlight the significance of the 'simple trading idea', I would like to draw your attention that today's high of 6039 was almost on the dot at the midpoint of last swing (6349+5727)/2= 6038.

Considering the strength today, as Nifty Future had a pullback only to fill the gap left in the opening session there is every possibility that Nifty Future will cross this hurdle to reach the top of 6100 which will be the more difficult one to cross. We had a 4th day rally from the recent bottom of 5727. In view of the same, I would not advise fresh long position and instead suggest that those who have risk taking capacity may go short near 6100 levels with a strict stop loss of 6135 or safer still sell 6100 or 6200 Call Option.

Those who want to play safe can sell only below 6000 with a Stop Loss of 6040. On the down side, it will find support at 5975 - 5940 and strong support at 5885.

One needs to be cautious at higher levels, considering the one way rally for the past 4 days, as well as the strong resistance 6100 level could provide.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.23 as against 1.06 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future had a firm opening and continued steady rise through out the day, albeit without participation from Reliance & Infosys. The party was led by SBI, LT, TATA MOTORS etc. The movement of Nifty Future on the 30 min chart has formed a tight rising wedge. Considering the sharp rise in DOW at the time of writing this post, and also the strong close for Nifty Future today, it is obvious to expect a strong opening which will lead to break out of rising wedge on the up side, but .... you never know.

Normally the down side break out from such rising wedge are quite sharp, hence one needs to be little extra careful.

On the EOD chart you will observe that the close is right on the horizontal line which was expected to be a hurdle and as stated above, in all likelyhood we will cross this in the opening session tomorrow. However, we are now moving into the next hurdle at 6050 and 6100, the crossing of which seems difficult - at least at the first attempt. As such, in my opinion, 6050 itself should be a difficult thing to cross, particularly without the participation of Reliance & Infosys.

In view of the above, I am not suggesting fresh long positions unless one wants to take the additional risk. Moreover, we are already into 3 days of bullishness.

One can consider going short below 5950 with strict stop loss of 6000. On the downside, it will find support at 5925 and strong support at 5885.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.06 as against 0.82 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.