TURNING POINTS FOR 09.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected, Nifty Future opened firm and made a high of 5140 and then went sideways. During the middle of the day it made a new high of 5145, but then gave up all the gains to fill up the opening gap and make a low of 5105. Though Nifty Future continues to make higher top and higher bottom on the EOD chart, it should be noted that on the intra-day 30 min chart shows divergence suggesting weakness. Moreover, we have almost reached the resistance zone of 5150 and 5175. With Reliance lacking the strength, long positions should be protected with tight stop loss as below 5100 Nifty Future can get weak.

For tomorrow, i would not advise fresh long positions and the existing long positions should be trailed with Stop Loss of 5100. Short positions can be considered below 5100 with tight stop loss of 5150. On lower side, it will find support at 5075 - 5050 and 4985. Weakness will accelerate below 4980.

Put Call Ratio of Index options decreased to 1.15 as against 1.38 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

On last Friday, Nifty Future opened strong and made a high of 5116 where it found Trend line resistance, but in the second half saw a sharp correction to make a low of 5065. Despite this correction, EOD candle and Weekly candle leave hope for continuation of this rally to a major hurdle at 5175.

With US markets closing strong, we can expect a strong opening tomorrow. One can create new position/trail existing long position with stop loss of 5040. On higher side it has to clear the trend line resistance of 5116 to go to higher levels. As such 5155 to 5175 region can act as resistance.

On downside, it will get weak below 5040 with support at 4975 and 4950. Nifty below 4950 can accelerate weakness.

Put Call Ratio of Index options increased to 1.38 as against 1.30 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After 3 day up move, narrow range of 40 points for the day can be explained as taking breather before continuation of the up move. Nifty Future made low of 5050, high of 5090 and closed at 5081. EOD Candle does leave the hope for continuation of the up move open. However, it should be noted that Reliance and Infosys both remained weak today.

For tomorrow i would continue to suggest going long/trail the Nifty Future with a stop loss of 5040 and it can face major resistance at 5175 levels.

As referred in yesterday's post, tomorrow is the anniversary date if you consider the low of 2525 as the starting point of the current rally. Moreover it is the 242nd day of trading from the low of 2525 made on 5.03.2008. This coupled with significant resistance at 5170 may lead to an intermediate top, has to be kept in mind while keeping long positions open. While the charts do suggest continuation of the up move, it is better not to overlook such significant coincidences and take a cautious approach vis-a-vis trading positions.

One needs to worry about the downside only if Nifty goes below 5000 and closes below 4975.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options continues to remain high at 1.30 as against 1.26 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.