HOW TO USE TURNING POINT LEVELS

The four time frames considered here are Annual, Monthly, Weekly & Daily. The  Resistance levels are named RA, RM, RW & RD and the corresponding Support levels are named as SA, SM, SW & SD. The range given in the table should be considered as a normal trading range for the given time frame.

The market price will have very good momentum on the upside as long as it remains above all the four Resistance levels referred above and conversely, will have very good momentum on the downside as long as the market price remains below all the four support levels mentioned above.

In my experience of using this idea, I have found that it provides resistance/support  at least for once and on many occasion, it becomes top/bottom price which will hold for quite some time.

RA/RM & SA/SM are suited for both – traders/investors, whereas RW/RD & SW/SD are ideally suited for traders.

Resistance and Support levels can also be used as meaningful stop loss levels –  trading the markets without using  stop loss is a first step to financial disaster.

With a view to illustrate how effectively this idea works, I have enclosed a monthly chart of Banknifty Future with lines marked RA level (in Red) and SA level (in Green).  The Second Chart of Nifty Fu (60 min) shows RM & SM levels (in Blue).

I will be sending separate Tweets for the following segments, before the respective markets open:

EQ            - Nifty Future & Bank nifty Future 

MCX         - Gold & Silver

US MKTS - DJIA  & NASDAQ

It will be better to watch the market movement for a few days with the above perspective and I am sure you will realise its effectiveness.

Disclaimer:

The above write up and the daily tweets giving TURNING POINT Levels are given for academic purpose only. However, if you choose to use it for trading/investment  purpose – you will be doing so at your own risk and consequences and the undersigned takes no responsibility for the same.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan  Asher.
13.10.2015

Twitter handle @myturningpoints 

NIFTY FUTURE 60 MIN

BANK NIFTY FUTURE MONTHLY

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY CHART FOR WEEK ENDED 08.05.2015

MARKET MATHS

MARKET  MATHS

Market participants always believe the stock markets to be quite random and are always perplexed about its movements.  For a trader, any idea that helps to find swing top/bottom is always welcome.

In a book by W D Gann, titled “How to make profits in Commodities” he has mentioned the following (on page 34):

“If we wish to avert failure in speculation, we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relation. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order are at the foundation of all things. Faraday said: `There is nothing in the Universe but mathematical points of force`.

Every Commodity makes a TOP or BOTTOM on some exact mathematical point in proportion of some previous high or low level.”

This article  is an attempt to illustrate, what the legendary trader W D Gann has stated above.

NIFTY FUTURE

NIFTY FUTURE MONTHLY  CHART AS ON 16.12.2014

In the above chart, I have marked the major swing high & low levels on a monthly chart that are relevant for the purpose of this exercise.

The arithmetic works as follows:

                        Nov ’10 High  -  6349   (B)

             Less:   Oct  ’08  Low -  2228   (A)

                                               -----------

                                                  4121

             Add :   Dec ’11 Low      4538  (C)

                                                -----------

                                                  8659 

As against the arithmetical target of 8659, Nifty Future made a  high of 8668 (D). The overrun of just 9 points can well be explained as – what W D Gann referred to as Lost Motion – the effect of momentum that carries prices slightly past its target in a volatile market.

While this idea by itself does not indicate that it is a final  top, but considering that we have used Monthly chart – the significance of this top should not be undermined.

As regards the BSE Sensex, the recent top is not as accurate as in the case of Nifty Future. However, I have given below the levels for comparison purpose.

                        Nov ’10 High  - 21108

             Less:   Oct  ’08  Low -   7697

                                               -----------

                                                 13411

             Add :   Dec ’11 Low    15135 

                                                -----------

                                                 28546 

As against the recent high of   28822.      

In my experience of using this  idea, I have found that it works quite well on stocks/commodities chart of different  time frames.

Keep Learning!

CA Ketan  Asher.

17.12.2014.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

BANK NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY





In the above chart, I have drawn Andrew's Pitchfork with starting point A as Jul 2006,  point B as High of 13320 and point C at low of 7750. When doing so, the median line has provided perfect resistance at the recent all time high of 13348.

While making a new high at 13348, it has also made a double top and corrected sharply to make a recent low of  8349 at 50% level. In the last three days, Bank Nifty future has gone up over 19% from the recent low of 8349. This sharp up move has given an impression that the worst is over for this sector. In the week ahead, it may find strong resistance around 10200 being the lower parallel line as well as 0.382 Fib level of 10250.

 

Secondly, on the attached chart I have marked the time (in weeks) it has taken for each of the major moves. You will observe that the fall has lasted for 59 weeks where as the up move has been for 88 & 73 weeks. This shows that the sharp up move may just be a correction to the sharp fall as we are just into the 15th week of the fall.

 

Keep Learning!

Ketan Asher.
 

NIFTY FUTURE MONTHLY CHART

NIFTY FUTURE MONTHLY CHART

 

 

In the attached monthly chart of Nifty Future, I have drawn Andrew's Pitchfork, wherein you will observe that lower parallel line was providing support on many occasions in the past.

Current month candle is now decisively out of the lower parallel line and had a free fall yesterday. As shown on the chart, we can expect it to take support around @ 5380 being 50% level and thereafter @ 5180 being 0.618 fib level as well as trend line support. This can go down till 5100 being the open = low level shown on the chart on 3.8.2012. In achieving this level, Nifty Future will fill two more gaps (of the many more yet to be filled further down).

Investors and Traders, both need to be cautious as we may have just begun the down move.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

THREE LOW VALUE STOCKS FOR 2013

3I INFOTECH LTD. MONHTLY

FIRSTSOURCE SOLUTION LTD. MONTHLY



 

TTML MONTHLY


WISHING YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY & PROSPEROUS 2013.

 

I have attached monthly charts for 3I InfoTech, Firstsource Solution Ltd and Tata Tele Ltd. All these stocks are low priced and have gone through lot of bad times in the past few months. Though the indices are trading near their 52 week high, these 3 stocks are near their all time lows. Importantly, all these 3 companies belong to good managements. The merits of investment in these companies is discussed below:





3i INFOTECH LTD.

This IT company's shares are held by 11 banks including ICICI and all of them together, hold 50.89% shares in  this Company. On the attached chart you will find that Company has made a low of Rs. 7.05 during the past 3 months. It has now crossed the trend line (in blue) which suggests that worst could be over for this stock. On the higher side,  25 is likely to offer strong resistance.

FIRSTSORCE SOLUTION LTD.

One more Company from ICICI stable has recently been bought over by RP Goenka group. On the attached chart you will find that the Company  made a low of Rs. 5.55 and is ready to cross the trend line (in blue). It will gain momentum once above the resistance at 15. On the higher side it will find resistance at 25.

TATA TELE MAHARASHTRA LTD.

This Company belongs to TATA group and operates in telecom sector which has been going through tough times for quite sometime now. Since the time I posted this Company sometime back, the shares have been trading around Rs. 12 . On the chart you will find that this Company  too it is ready to cross the trend line which  suggests that the worst could be over for this stock.. On higher side it will find resistance at 19 and 25.

In case you find these Companies investment worthy, it will be better to consider equal investment in all 3 of them and hold them for at least a year. In that case you will benefit even if fortune of even one of them changes.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.
 

TTML & A B NUVO MONTHLY CHART

ADITYA BIRLA NUVO MONTHLY

TTML MONTHLY

  

  

WISHING YOU A VERY HAPPY & PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR.

 

TTML:

 

TTML is a telecom provider and this sector is known for all that can go wrong for the past couple of years. This stock has been trading @ Rs. 11.40 after being beaten down for the past 49 months. From the attached monthly chart, you will observe that this stock has been trading just above Rs. 10 for the past 3 months. More importantly, you will observe that it is now poised to cross the trend line when it starts trading above Rs. 12.30.

 

Considering that the other items of this sector (Bharati, Idea etc.)  are going up, it is just a matter of time when the trend line will be broken on the up side and the current market price provides a low risk opportunity to acquire this stock. On the way up, 15 -19 and 25 will provide resistance.

 

 

A B NUVO:

 

A B Nuvo is a diversified company from Aditya Birla Group. From the attached Monthly chart, you will observe that this Company has been trading in narrow range of Rs. 350 for the past 40 months. This Company has significant holding in IDEA Cellular.

 

With the price of Idea Cellular improving in the past few days, there is a good possibility that market price of this stock will finally break out of the upper range at 1050. Once this break out happens, we can expect the price to go up to 1400-1500 range.

 

Both the above stocks look good to buy at the Current Market price.

 

With Best Wishes,

 

Ketan Asher.

 

 

 



CENTURY TEX WEEKLY CHART

 

CENTURY TEX WEEKLY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the attached weekly chart (Futures), you will observe  that this stock has been making higher top/higher bottm for the past 7 weeks and closed  last week at 391 after making a new 52 week high of 395.

 

My observations are as follows:

 

1.  Current market price (CMP) is close to the previous high of 391 and 397.

2. As shown on the attached chart, CMP  is close to the 50% level of 405.

3. At around 425 we have multiple  resistance of the trend line (in Blue) and Andrew's Pithfork

    Median Line (in Red).

 

In view of the above, 405-425 level could provide strong resistance. Hence, those holding long positions  will do well to trail the position  with stop loss of 380.

 

I must add here that stock will gain strength  when it manages to cross the median line (425) hence short position should be avoided or be held with tight stop loss of 425. Considering that the stock has made a new 52 week high, buy on corrections would be a better strategy.

 

With Best Wishes,

 

Ketan Asher.

13.10.2012



 

 

    DCB MONTHLY CHART

The attached monthly chart of Dev. Credit Bank, indicates that it is ready to break out of a triangle - once it trades above Rs. 44/= during Oct 2012. Considering that it is ready to break out, it would also be good idea to invest even  on declines with stop loss of Rs. 40/=.

 

On the way up, it will find resistance at 53 - 60 and 64. As indicated on the chart, 91 will be a strong resistance  area and triangle target, however that will take some weeks/months.

 

With Best Wishes,

 

Ketan Asher.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE, SBI FUTURE & DCB

SBI FUTURE WEEKLY / DCB MONTHLY

BANK NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

BANK NIFTY FUTURE:
In the attached chart you will observe that after taking support on the lower parallel line (in Blue) of Andrew's Pitchfork, Bank Nifty Future has been showing strength for the past five weeks - with the last week's close (10643) near the high of the week.
One can consider going long - on declines, with stop loss of 10500 ( mid-point of the range shown on chart in Red). On the way up, 11000-11200 is a major resistance for various reasons shown on the chart. However, if Bank Nifty Future manages to break the trend line resistance near 11200 levels, it can then go up to 12000-12500 and face resistance (marked in Red downside arrows) at the median line as had happened in the past. Though this sounds like wishful thinking today, it seems possible in the event - RBI reduces the Bank Rate, as was done by ECB last week.
As Bank Nifty shows strength, the same is ought to get reflected in many of the Bank stocks. I have identified two stocks which are discussed below:
SBI FUTURE WEEKLY:
On the attached chart, you will find that the price is ready to move out of the trend line. One can consider going long – on declines, with stop loss of 2150. On the way up, it will face resistance at 2300-2325 and major resistance at 2540-2550 range.
DCB MONTHLY:
On the attached chart, you will find that the price is in the range of 30 to 75 for the past 28 months. It is now close to breaking the triangle formation when the price moves above 49. Considering that Bank stocks are showing strength, one can consider buying the stock in anticipation of the breakout. The stock closed at 45.50 last Friday. One can consider going long – on declines, with stop loss of 42. Though triangle breakout above 49 gives target price of 94 (shown on the chart), on the way up, it will face resistance at 53 – 66 and 75.

Please do not trade/invest without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

SAIL FUTURE WEEKLY CHART

SAIL FUTURE WEEKLY CHART

With markets not only at home but also overseas turning bullish, one should look for buying opportunites. In my view, Nifty Future can - over the next couple of weeks go up to 5600-5700.

With this backdrop, I find SAIL weekly chart given above, gives a safe opportunity for investor/trader.

In the attached chart, you will find that Sail has been consolidatting for the past 19 weeks and is now ready for a breakout from a triangle pattern. The breakout happens at 94 (last weeks' High 92) and gives an eventual target of 141 as shown in the chart. Though the breakout from triangle is at 94, it will gather momentum above 100 (previous High) and face hurdles on the way up at 110 - 116 - 127 and major resistance at 140-145 range.

In view of the above, one can consider going long around 92 with stop loss just below 88. As we are just at the beginning of a new FNO settlement cycle, one can even consider buying Rs. 100 Call available around Rs. 0.75 to Re 1/-. With lot size of 4000 shares this will entail maximum investment/risk of Rs. 4000/- .

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 01.06.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
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A weak open on Monday and further downside for Nifty Future is a foregone conclusion with our markets closing near the low of the week and furhter confirmed by weakness in US markets.

On the attached EOD chart, I have drawn Andrew's Pitchfork which indicates Median Line support at 4675 and Gap at 4656.

On the attached weekly chart, Andrew's Pitchfork indicates Medain Line support at 4700. Thus reading on both the charts does indicate that their exists good support between 4650 and 4700.

From time and price perspective, it is important to note on the Weekly chart that after bottoming out at 4538 (on 20th Dec'11), Nifty Future went up to 5700 in 8 weeks, whereas the current downside from the high of 5700 level has taken double the time (next week is the 16th week from high of 5700) - suggesting lower velocity during the fall and thus providing good reason for possible support in the 4650-4700 range.

The levels indicated above may be reached during the course of the next week and one can consider buying Nifty Future with strict stop loss of 4600.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

HDFC LTD. WEEKENDED 04.05.2012

HDFC WEEKLY CHART

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This stock has been trading in a narrow range of Rs. 80 for the past 13 weeks. In sync with the market weakness, this stock too has been declining and has closed weak today at 665. However, it remains inside the triangle marked on the attached chart. The downside breakout level is at 650 level.

This is one of the leading Housing Finance Co. with almost 70% of its equity held by FII's. Another noteworthy point in favor of this stock has been that the Company has converted the warrants at Rs. 600 per share and interestingly, this stock has not broken this level for the past 1 year - despite the continued weakness in the market. The Company is scheduled to declare its results/dividend on Monday, 7th May 2012.

As a contrarian trade - considering the current market weakness. one can consider buying the stock at lower levels with stop loss of Rs. 630 or Rs. 600 depending on individual risk profile. In event of good results and market turn around, this stock can see a break out on the higher side at 685 and can offer good profit potential.

Considering that this month's FNO settlement (31st May) is still far away, one can even consider buying call option with strike price of Rs. 680 or Rs. 700 which closed today at Rs. 2.65 & Rs. 6.95 respectively.

As the markets remain weak, please do not forget to keep a suitable stop loss. One can minimize the risk by buying call option as referred above.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

Review of Bank Nifty Future

On 2nd May, I had put up a chart on Bank Nifty Future and had recommended a sell below 10200. Interestingly, the results have been too good and too fast. It closed t weak today at 9793. I would like to remind the readers - particularly those who have sold reading my post, to consider covering the shorts at around 9500 levels as it could provide good support - considering that it is 50% level as well as previous bottom.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE EOD 30TH APR 2012

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BANK  NIFTY  FUTURE :

In the attached Chart, I have marked a triangle which shows that we are close to the apex of the triangle and break out is just a few days away. 

As can be seen on the chart, the upside breakout happens above 10530. While one would like to believe that the break out will be on the up side - with good results announced by leading private sector banks and much awaited cut in repo rates by RBI. However, the fact remains that this optimism is not reflected in the Bank Nifty chart, as we closed today with a  doji on the Monthly candle (not shown)  chart.

In view of the above, one needs to be prepared for a down side breakout in the coming few days and this will get confirmed  once Nifty Future  trades below 10000. On the downside, Bank Nifty Future will find support at 9835 (previous bottom), 9500 and 9200 over the coming days/weeks.

One can consider going short below 10200 with stop loss of 10300.

While the downside target of 8400 looks  unlikely today, one needs to be prepared for it once Bank Nifty Future  trades below 10000.  I am sure the reasons too will follow. Moreover,  you will also find that I have marked arrows on the attached chart which show  'gaps' - and these too have to be filled sooner or later. 

With Best Wishes,

Ketan  Asher.

NIFTY FUTURE QUARTER ENDED MAR 2012

NIFTY FUTURE QUARTERLY

As per the basic charting principles, as the time frame increases - so does the significance of the signals given by the chart. As quarterly chart is next in line to the Annual chart, its significance can not be undermined.

The key features of the Mar 2012 quarter are:

1. During the quarter Nifty Future made a range of 1108 points (High 5700 & Low 4592).

2. After previous 4 quarters of lower top lower bottom formation, we have for the first time, higher top and higher bottom formation - a big positive indeed.

3. The low of the Mar 2012 quarter has taken support on the lower parallel line of the Andrew's Pitchfork drawn in blue.

4.. One negative indication on the chart is given by the upper shadow of the candle. This when seen with the lower top and lower bottom formation on the monthly chart, does not augur well for the sustained up move. The upper shadow indicates selling pressure at higher levels.

5. The major move can now be expected only above previous quarter high (5700) and previous quarter low (4592).

6. During the current quarter (June 2012), on the up side Nifty future will face resistance of the trend line (shown in blue) at 5600. On the down side it will break the lower parallel line of the Andrew's Pitchfork at 4750. Thus giving a range of 850 points before which we can expect any major directional move.

To summarise, I would say that Nifty Future may face strong resistance at 5600 on the up side (considering the upper shadow in Q.E. Mar 2012 candle and Nifty may spend time in this 850 point range during this quarter before we can see any major move.

With Best Wishes for a new Financial Year.

Ketan Asher.

INVESTMENT IDEA - GLENMARK PHARMA

GLENMARK PHARMA WEEKLY

On the attached weekly chart of Glenmark Pharma, you will find that the stock is consolidating for over 2 years in a 135 points range. With the stock now coming near the apex of the triangle, looks ready for upward break out.

Though the breakout takes place at 325, one can consider it for buying above 300 with stop loss of 285. Once it breaks out of 325, it will gain momentum with a target of about 450. On the way up, it will face hurdles at 350 and 390.

Happy Investing!

Ketan Asher.

SPECIAL UPDATE - CENTURY TEXTILES

CENTURY TEXTILES WEEKLY

Regular visitors would recall that I had been updating the weekly chart on this blog for a long time. I have posted this Special Update, as the stock has moved up considerably in the past week and has given a strong breakout with high volumes on the weekly chart.

On the attached chart, you will observe that after consolidating for about 5 weeks, Nifty Future has broken out of Flag pattern with high volumes. While this does indicate strength and augurs well for the stock, one must be careful that it will encounter strong resistance at 385. Further up move to 425 and 485 will be possible only when it manages to cross this hurdle at 385 - being 50% level as well as the trend line.

Continues to remain a good stock to buy on declines.

Another fall out of this up move is that the direct beneficiary will be Pilani Investmets (listed on BSE & NSE) which holds about 30% of this stock besides other investments in Aditya Birla Group and Tata Steel. Though the trading interest is low, it would be a good long term investment considering the strength of its total investments. The Balance Sheet of Pilani Investments makes an interesting reading for long term investor.

Wishing you all a very happy Gudi Padwa!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.03.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a sharp up move yesterday, Nifty Future made a sharp down move, taking Nifty Future below yesterday's low and thereby creating a panic like situation.

I have updated the blog today with the hope that with the help of the attached charts we can be prepared for tomorrow's trading.

The close does indicate that we may see a weak opening tomorrow, even leading to a gap down open in case the World markets extend weakness. However the brighter side is that we are now close to many supports in the area of 5150 and 5180. Even the Andrew's Pitchfork drawn on the attached chart shows median line support around the same level.

Considering that we had a strong brake out on the weekly chart after range bound trading for 64 weeks, I doubt if this weakness will precipitate into a major downside.

More importantly,tomorrow is a Friday and a time for weekly close. In my view, once the opening session weakness settles down around the levels indicated above, one can consider going long on Nifty Future with stop loss of 5140 or better still buy 5300 call for the current series or the next month - if you are ready to pay little more. Once Nifty Future trades above 5270 level, one can consider that my optimism has some merit.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

IMPORTANT NOTE

With effect from tomorrow, I plan to discontinue the daily/weekly updates. Instead, I will now post stock / index ideas of particular interest occasionally.
As and when I update the blog, I will send an alert tthrough my twitter account.
Moreover, I now plan to start weekly training programmes during market hours. Those interested may write to me at turningpoints.in@gmail.com for details.
Thank you all for visiting my blog.
With Regards,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As the world markets were flat to positive yesterday, Nifty Future too opened strong and maintained the up move through the day. May be market realised that yesterday's fall was little over done. Today's close at 5442 is near the top (5459) of the day - suggesting strength. Should be we consider yesterday's sharp fall just as an abberation and expect the market to rally from here? I don't think so, particularly because of the ease with which it broke the support yesterday at 5400 level. Moreover, there are many more hurdles on the way up - particularly at 5480 (shown on 30 min chart) and 5530 (0.618 level). I doubt if this resistance will get cleared in a hurry.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5420 with stop loss of 5470. Altertantively, one can consider going short at higher levels around 5480 with stop loss of 5520. Considering that US and European markets are flat at the time of writing this post, there is a possibility that Nifty Future may open strong and test higher levels at 5480.

I do not advise going long at higher levels.

As regards the Index option chain data, I find that there has been considerable addition in open interest on the put side. Interestingly, there has been reduction in open interest in respect of Bank Nifty Future - suggesting liqidation of long position at higher levels.

I would consider tomorrow to be an important day for the near term trend of the market, as I believe that in case Nifty Future moves below 5300 levels, it will break the trend line on the EOD chart and that will entail deeper correction for the next few days.

Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.